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Analysis Of Osun Election Indicates Buhari Could Lose In 2019 - USA Firm Says


A New York-based analysis firm, Teneo Intelligence, has said the outcome of the Osun governorship election is an indication that President Muhammadu Buhari could lose in 2019.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured the highest votes in the poll which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared inconclusive. Ademola Adeleke, candidate of the PDP, polled 254,699, while his closest challenger, Isiaka Oyetola of the All progressives Congress (APC) had 254,345 votes.

In a report by Bloomberg, the intelligence firm said if the opposition managed to unite, the February election would be a tough one for the ruling party.
“There is already a clear message sent from Osun State: provided the PDP remains united, and the vote is reasonably free and fair, Buhari and his APC are likely to lose the general election,” Malte Liewerscheidt, an analyst at Teneo, said.

Recently, HSBC Bank, a global financial organisation, in its report titled: “Nigeria: Papering Over The Cracks”, said the economy would suffer setback if Buhari should win in 2019.The institution added that the chances of Buhari winning another term were slim.

“A second term for Mr. Buhari, however, raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil,” the report read.

“In the near term, however, the election impact is likely to be negative as increased political uncertainty precludes policy reforms, weighs on confidence, deters investment spending and restrains the growth outlook.”

But Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu refuted the report, attributing it to the fear that the current administration could sanction the bank for shielding stolen wealth of corrupt Nigerians. Shehu said the bank had soiled its hand with millions of US dollars looted by Sani Abacha, former military head of state.

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